Executive Brief
India's oldest strategic partnership is navigating the Ukraine war, a dramatic surge in oil imports, Western sanctions pressure, and Russia's deepening embrace of China — all while defence dependency keeps the relationship anchored.
Key Takeaways
India's oldest strategic partnership is navigating the Ukraine war, a dramatic surge in oil imports, Western sanctions pressure, and Russia's deepening embrace of China — all while defence dependency keeps the relationship anchored.
- Russia supplied 60-65% of India's military equipment historically, though this has declined to ~45% as India diversifies to US, France, and Israel
- India's oil imports from Russia surged from 2% to 35% of total crude imports after the Ukraine war, saving an estimated $15 billion annually
- The S-400 Triumf air defence system deal ($5.4 billion) proceeded despite US CAATSA sanctions threat, demonstrating India's strategic autonomy
- Bilateral trade reached a record $65 billion in 2025-26, driven overwhelmingly (85%) by Indian oil purchases
- Growing Russia-China military axis and delayed defence deliveries are pushing India toward greater diversification
Evidence
India's oil imports from Russia are not violating Western sanctions.[1]
Verified90%Supporting Evidence
- India has not breached G7 price cap mechanisms and buys Russian oil at discounted rates ($10-15/barrel below Brent). EU nations including France, Italy, and Spain also continue importing Russian refined products.
Citations
Report1
Russia remains India's most reliable defence partner regardless of the Ukraine war.[1]
Strong85%Supporting Evidence
- While Russia has historically been India's primary defence supplier, deliveries of S-400 systems have been delayed, spare parts availability dropped by 40% since 2022, and Russia has prioritised its own military needs. India's defence imports from Russia fell to 36% (2020-24) from 62% (2014-18).
Citations
Report1
Key Numbers
$65 billionBilateral Trade (2025-26)Ministry of Commerce
35% of total crudeIndian Oil Imports from RussiaPPAC
~45% (down from 65%)Russian Defence Equipment ShareSIPRI 2025
6 (2 operational, 4 under construction)Nuclear Reactors (Kudankulam)NPCIL
3 of 5 regimentsS-400 Systems DeliveredMOD
Timeline
India-Russia Trade ($ Billion)
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Russia's Share of Indian Arms Imports (%)
Frequently Asked Questions
Sources
Evidence & Confidence Summary
90
Confidence Score
Strong Evidence
1/2 claims verified
1 Verified1 Unverifiable